With the stock market on an apparent upswing, market timing – the strategy of making buy-or-sell decisions by trying to predict future market price movements – is once again all the rage.
The strategy is simple, a fundamental application of buy low and sell high: never buy before it bottoms out and never sell before the zenith. Time the market, and you'll make a bundle.
Of course, if it was that simple, we'd be billionaires and spend our days reading blogs.
When someone does "get out just before the crash" he writes books and goes on Oprah, only to stumble at the next market correction.
Seasoned and successful investors say it over and over: you have to stay in during the ups and the downs. It's long-term endurance, not short-term speculation, that, with G‑d's blessing (okay, not all seasoned investors use that clause), leads to success.
It's a lot like life. Sometimes we are tempted to "market time" our relationships with our families, communities, or G‑d. We think we can choose the right time to get in, get out when it gets tough, and sit on the sidelines until it's the perfect time to reenter. But as when trying to market time a stock, it's haughty and foolish to presume we know when the right time will be and how the friend or G‑d will react to our sudden entry.
Jewish history is filled with times when it seemed smart to bolt, and, thank G‑d, many times when it was advantageous to dive in. If we try to hit only the highs (including the High Holidays), thinking we can abandon ship during the downtimes and then predict when to re-board, we could find ourselves regretfully looking back on a whole list of woulda, shoulda, couldas. G‑d is eternally welcoming of any participation, but it makes it a lot harder if you have to reintroduce yourself every time.
Whether my child got an "A" or I got another phone call from the principal, I am there. Whether my spouse was kind or grouchy, I am committed. Whether celebrating the miraculous salvation of Purim or mourning the tragic events of Tisha B'Av, we are in.
We've stuck it out for 3,300 years; we have seen the complete gamut of this roller coaster. Hey G‑d, it's time for the payoff: Moshiach!
